Upset Radar — 2026 Bracket first-round matchups where Elo and seeding disagree

Biggest Movers — 2025 → 2026 top 15 gainers and falloffs by year-over-year Elo change

▲ Biggest Gainers

▼ Biggest Falloffs

Model Calibration predicted vs actual win-rate by probability bucket

Calibration plot

A well-calibrated Elo lands every point near the dashed diagonal — if the model predicts a 70% win prob, the home team actually wins ~70% of those games. Bin size shown below each point. Built from all 52,000+ fitted games (2021–2026).